A Democratic Freakout?

By Dave

That's what conservative Jon Henke sees on the horizon:

The first Democratic freak out will be an internal Congressional fight in 2010 over whether to (1) move big and fast while they still have the votes, or (2) slow down and preserve as many seats as they can. The second Democratic freak out is going to occur in 2011 and beyond, when Democrats try to figure out what the lesson of the 2010 elections really is.

• Progressives - and especially the netroots - will say the lesson is "Damn the Republicans, Full Speed Ahead", but that's what they always say.  Revolutionaries like bold action more than practical details.
• Moderates/pragmatists will say the lesson is "don't try to do too much, take smaller steps, make reasonable compromises".  But that is more effective at maintaining power than accomplishing major policy goals.

I think, except for moderates/pragmatists part, Henke's analysis is largely right. At least, it's definitely a possibility. As I've said before, I don't think 2010 will be a year of amazing legislative success. The realist (or cynic) in me says that 2010 is a mid-term election year. Historically, the party in power loses seats. Democrats are nervous. As Wade's post showed, Republicans have no idea why they lost the last two elections and their confusion makes them all the more pissed off and angry. They smell blood in the water and think now is their time to seize back power. They are going to fight with everything they have.

So this makes for a cautious legislative environment, particularly for those with fragile holds on their seats.  

But that being said, I don't think 2010 will be some sort of 'lost year.' If health care reform passes, the toughest battles will be behind Democrats. Sure, climate change regulation will be difficult but can it be as hard as health-care? I don't think so. Reid is already saying the Senate will be up for it by Spring.

My prediction: 2010 will be a year for low hanging legislative fruit, symbolic victories to rally the base, and maybe one or two big, important, but divisive issues (climate change and financial reform?).

As for the Henke's analysis of Moderates/Pragmatists, I 'd say the Obama track record shows exactly the opposite. Pragmatists have made concessions and compromises in order to accomplish major policy goals. (See: Stimulus, health care, etc.) It still is yet to be seen if this strategy will help them maintain power.